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 This book is the most important among those that are presented by this Homepage. It is purely theoretical, so it may have a misfortune to be misunderstood or understood only partially. The most important step to its understanding is to separate the theory of Historical Determinism from that of Historical Inevitability. Both start from an identical starting point in seeing the basic moving principles of history in natural causes. However, from here the similarity ceases. Historical inevitability continues on its path, claiming that the process of history advances to a point in time, when it can be stopped, corrected and redirected somewhere, where the previous errors will not occur again. Provided, of course, that those in the know will be in charge of future actions.Thus, in the 20th century the world had to struggle with Nazism, which saw the problems of the world as a result of twisted biological and racial theories, and claimed that it found the path to earthly paradise through a process of murderous ethnic cleansing. Then the world had to cope with Communism, which saw the problems of the world through twisted logic of economy and sociology. Similarly to Nazism, it saw the path to a blissful future through the management of the world by an enlightened elite, which will prevent backsliding to the previous problems. It is very easy to point out the logical contradictions that were at the base of political theories based upon historical inevitability. Historical determinism claims that human history is not depending on human free will but on outside factors. If it is so, and even granting that the natural factors have directed human history to wrong directions, there is no way to redirect history to whatever new direction we would like it to take, as any human action, including that of the redirection and further management, is powerless to change anything. Therefore, any political theory based upon Historical Inevitability, which is supposed to be a derivative of the theory of Historical Determinism, is a logical impossibility, a form of political 'perpetuum mobile'. It is only a pity that the way of convincing them of the absurdity of the theories cost the world uncounted dozens of millions of victims. But, it seems that not only Nazism and Communism belong to the false theories; there are also more modern variations, as Liberal Democracy, Global Trade, and Wired World, which promise a better world, like their predecessors. Hopefully, it will be less costly to prove them wrong. This book has nothing to do with historical inevitability. Furthermore, it does not advocate pet ideas and easy solutions. It is maybe a historical injustice but there are no easy solutions. Moreover, this book is convinced that there cannot be any solution, which does not conform to the basic principles of the theory of determinism. In this respect, it is worth while to write a few lines about interesting developments in the fields of social sciences, neuroscience and molecular biology. Charles Murray, the co-author of The Bell Curve wrote an article in the National Review in January, 2000, that the development in all those sciences is so fast and deep, that quoting E.O. Wilson, he writes that we are on the edge of understanding how human nature in individuals produces social and political institutions. He also wrote that: "…the speed with which that knowledge is expanding is so fast, and accelerating, that it is reasonable to expect that we are going to know a great deal about many, many aspects of human nature and their social implications within just a few more decades. By the end of the 21st century, we will be approaching biological truth about these topics." Still, we are at the beginning of the 21st century and not at the end. Therefore, the implications of the quotation above are disregarded in the book, although they are exactly in its spirit. It is obvious that if Murray's prediction will come true then history will be changed into a science from being an art. However, we are not there yet. Historical determinism explains the past and does not preach solutions for the future. If it has predictions, it says that whatever form any future political system will take, it will be according to the principles of Deterministic History, and according to the contents of the principles, as they will be at that time. Indeed the main principle of Historical Determinism is that everything moves, and everything changes. The basic laws of history are permanent and identical; the contents and the ratios between the forces are constantly changing. Herakleitos said: "You cannot step twice in the same river". The prediction of Charles Murray will hopefully change that predilection, which in a paradoxical way provided a great deal to world of art, and the world, will certainly be poorer by its elimination. However, one cannot stop science, and this book is a small step in that direction. In order to do so, the study of history is analyzed in order to prove that:
The theory of Historical Determinism claims that history is not entirely random and it certainly is not a cyclic process. If there is a graphic way to present history then the seemingly random pattern at the top of this page shows it. It is the famous fractal pattern, as developed by Benoit Mandelbrot. If one compares the first pattern with the last, then both are entirely random. However, if one looks more closely then one can see that the same patterns are repeated all over again. So randomness and common pattern can coexist within the same system; and the same for history. The principles of Historical Determinism, as developed in this book, claim that:
There are a number of comments that should be added here:
The answers to the three major points of objection are really simple and self-evident.
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